91桃色

Survey Says! 91桃色 Polling Group

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Posted on January 25, 2019

Marketing and Communications

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When the 91桃色 Health system needed a full-service research partner for a large, federally mandated report, it found what it needed right at home: the 91桃色 Polling Group.

91桃色 Polling, part of the political science and criminal justice department, operates an interviewing lab in the Humanities Building. Its low profile belies the extent and intricacy of its work, not only for 91桃色 but also for outside clients. 91桃色 Polling conducts surveys about everything from health care and public policy to schoolchildren鈥檚 summer vacations.

The work is technical and tricky. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 just say, 'Well, I鈥檓 going to ask these questions and then just say this many people said yes; this many people said no,'鈥� said Dr. Jaclyn Bunch, associate director of 91桃色 Polling. 鈥淪urveying is way more complicated.鈥�

Denise Anderson, care management director for 91桃色 Health, is working with 91桃色 Polling on the health system鈥檚 2018-2019 Community Health Needs Assessment, or CHNA. 鈥淭hey went over and above anything I would have expected,鈥� she said.

By federal law, tax-exempt hospitals must complete a CHNA (pronounced 鈥淐hina鈥� in health-care circles) every three years and make the results public. It鈥檚 an enormous, complex undertaking.

鈥淭he thing that was so impressive about the 91桃色 Polling Group,鈥� Anderson said, 鈥渋s that they spent the time to talk to me as the client to see what my vision was, what my expectations were and how I thought we could make all of it come to fruition. And then they built on that.鈥�

鈥淭hey spent the time to talk to me as the client to see what my vision was, what my expectations were and how I thought we could make all of it come to fruition.鈥�

She said that when 91桃色 Polling did the previous CHNA in 2015-2016, Director Dr. Thomas Shaw researched the federal CHNA regulations on his own before meeting with her. Then, Anderson said, 鈥淣ot only did they do the polling, but they also did the analysis of the relevant comparison data, worked with our network that we have at 91桃色 about what we were currently doing to help better our scores and enhance the community scores, and put together the whole package.鈥�

For each CHNA, 91桃色 Polling surveys hospital and clinic managers, health department administrators, nonprofit organization executives and others who supply or oversee health care. It also asks the recipients of health care 鈥� randomly selected Mobile County residents 鈥� about their health needs.

Then Bunch digs out data compiled by the Census Bureau and other public and private sources. She compares Mobile County to Alabama and to the nation in such categories as infant mortality, accidental deaths and specific diseases like diabetes.

In an example of cooperation among competitors, 91桃色 Health partnered on the project with two other local hospitals. It made financial sense, Shaw said. 鈥淩ather than each group having to do their own independent data collection and writing their own reports,鈥� he said, 鈥渋f all three groups worked together, it would provide a cost saving to each group individually for us to do one-time data collection.鈥�

91桃色 created the polling group in 1992 to conduct weekly public opinion polls for Mobile's Press-Register newspaper. The group鈥檚 mission and methods have evolved considerably since then. 鈥�91桃色 Polling Group, even though it has 鈥榩olling鈥� in the title, is more of a survey research organization than just strictly polling,鈥� Shaw said.

Surveying is a challenging blend of art and science. The structure of the questions (true-false? multiple choice?) can bias responses. So can their wording and even their sequencing. The rise of cell phones has made it harder to reach a representative sample of the survey population. The answers need to be weighted to reflect the sample. If most respondents are women, for example, then the surveyors will give extra weight to men鈥檚 answers.

Most people probably associate polling with politics. 鈥淲e typically do not work for political candidates,鈥� Shaw said, 鈥渂ecause as a university we want to maintain a third-party stance toward individual candidates and don鈥檛 want to look like we鈥檙e working for a particular candidate or a particular party.鈥�

Back in 2013, 91桃色 Polling did partner with Lagniappe, Mobile鈥檚 independent weekly newspaper, during the first mayoral race between then-Mayor Sam Jones and challenger Sandy Stimpson. Two weeks before the vote, 鈥渨e had the election at 47 percent each with 6 percent undecided,鈥� Shaw said. 鈥淚f we had called the election then, we would have allocated all 6 percent to Stimpson,鈥� on the theory that voters who still hadn鈥檛 made up their minds at that late date harbored some dissatisfaction with the incumbent.

So 91桃色 Polling would have predicted a 53-47 percent victory by Stimpson. He ended up winning by 53.5 percent to 46.2 percent.

91桃色 Health has used the polling group for marketing surveys as well as for CHNAs. Other projects often arise within the 91桃色 family. 鈥淧rofessors might get a grant, and part of that grant might require that they need to do some data collection,鈥� Shaw said.

Nonprofit organizations outside the University are frequent customers. 鈥淲e鈥檝e done work for the local drug education council,鈥� Shaw said. 鈥淲e鈥檝e done work for the Alabama campaign to prevent teen pregnancy, looking at sex education in Alabama. We鈥檝e done work with the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama looking at political priorities in the state of Alabama. We just finished doing a survey of Alabamians throughout the state looking at their attitudes and perspectives about the length of summer break for public schoolchildren.鈥�

Sometimes, 91桃色 Polling even works with individuals. 鈥淲e had a gentleman contact us a couple months ago,鈥� Shaw said. 鈥淗e鈥檚 interested in people鈥檚 perceptions of the quality of Mobile Bay water. We gave him a cost proposal, and he鈥檚 working on trying to raise money.鈥�

91桃色 Polling operates at cost, charging only to cover its expenses. 鈥淪urvey research is expensive,鈥� Shaw said. 鈥淏ut if you compare us to a for-profit center, we鈥檙e actually rather inexpensive.鈥�

The group primarily conducts surveys over the phone or internet. Changing times and changing technology have forced changes in survey methods. Shaw, an associate professor of political science at South, got his doctorate in 1998. He said he tells his disbelieving students, 鈥淲hen I was young, when the phone rang, everybody wanted to know who it was. Everybody wanted to answer it. Nowadays, if the phone rings in a house, everybody鈥檚 like, 鈥業鈥檓 not touching it.鈥欌��

The polling group avoids the common survey practice of autodialing 鈥� having a machine continually dial numbers, switching the call to a live interviewer when someone picks up. It鈥檚 efficient, but if all interviewers are tied up when the call is answered, an annoying silence greets the respondent鈥檚 鈥渉ello.鈥�

Instead, 91桃色 Polling鈥檚 interviewers do all the dialing and respond immediately when someone answers. 91桃色 Polling buys lists of numbers from a vendor. 鈥淔or a given project,鈥� Shaw said, 鈥淚 might order 5,000 numbers. I鈥檒l get 2,500 landlines, and I鈥檒l get 2,500 cell numbers.鈥�

The landline numbers are random digit dialed, meaning that the first eight digits are from working numbers and the last two digits are randomly generated. That lets surveyors reach a representative sample, including unlisted and do-not-call numbers. (Survey researchers are exempt from the do-not-call law, but if a caller says, 鈥淧ut me on your do-not-call list,鈥� 91桃色 Polling honors that request.)

The cell numbers, in contrast, are full numbers, randomly selected from the area being surveyed.

91桃色 Polling hires student interviewers, supplemented by temporary workers provided through an employment agency. Graduate students work as supervisors. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a really great learning experience for them,鈥� Shaw said.

Mistrust of polls is common, and sometimes justified, Shaw and Bunch said. Internet services such as SurveyMonkey allow almost anyone to conduct a poll. Usually, such surveys are so poorly designed that their results are worthless.

鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to communicate the importance of random sampling and the importance of question wording,鈥� Bunch said. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 just have one option that says I favor this and then seven options that explain why you don鈥檛 favor it.鈥�

That kind of polling produces ridiculously unreliable results. Yet corporations, and voters, sometimes base crucial decisions on such data.

鈥淎 huge component of our job is the need to educate people about what these results mean, how we can understand them and what we can and cannot interpret from them,鈥� Bunch said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 why it鈥檚 a good fit that the polling center鈥檚 in an academic institution, because these things should be treated in an academic manner.鈥�

The 91桃色 Polling Group can be contacted through its director, Dr. Thomas Shaw, at 251-414-8025 or tshaw@southalabama.edu.

Five Polling Challenges (Aside From Disappearing Landlines)

• People screen calls or hang up at the first sign of a sales pitch. 鈥淭he fact that we鈥檙e associated with the University helps a great deal,鈥� said Bunch. 鈥淵ou鈥檙e able to start by saying, 鈥業鈥檓 calling from the University.鈥欌��
• Media outlets and the public want definitive predictions, which polls don鈥檛 provide. 鈥淲e deal in probability,鈥� Bunch said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 deal in certainty.鈥�
• People misunderstand or ignore the margin of error. If a political poll with a 3 percent margin of sampling error shows a candidate ahead by five points, that candidate may actually lead by 11 points. That's because one candidate's numbers could skew three points higher, while the second's could lag by three points (5+3+3=11). Conversely, the candidate ahead by five points may actually be behind by one point (5-3-3=-1).  
• Wording of questions matters. 鈥淭here are all these response effects that we need to be aware of, right down to what words you use and in what order do you put a question,鈥� said Bunch. 鈥淪hould this be a free-response question? Should this be multiple choice?鈥�
• Attention spans have diminished. 鈥淭hey used to have really long surveys 30 and 40 years ago,鈥� Bunch said. Today, 91桃色 Polling shoots for a maximum of 25 questions, taking no more than 10 minutes. 鈥淚f you want a good response rate, you have to pay attention to the average attention span.鈥�

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